NIFTY VIEW 20-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 20-08-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
NIFTY O 5500 H 5500 L 5367  C 5404 AVG 5420 (   MONTH  AVG 5665 ) last two avg is 5502

FROM (5745) 50 % RETRENCHMENT MARKET FALL LIKE 2009 .MARKET IS MORE NERVOUS THEN BEARISH. IN MARKET VOLUME  IS LESS & FALL IS MORE. 

NOW 5502 & 5555 WILL BE  HURDLES & 5350 OR 5325  MAX SUPPORT.

TODAY INDEX SOLD BY FII ALL QTTY ABSORB WITHIN 75 POINT OF NIFTY & LONG POSITION WIND UP IN PUT 40000 CONT.AFTER WEDNESDAY MARKET WILL BE IN ROLL OVER MODE SO GOING SHORT @ THIS PRICE WILL BE NOT ADVISABLE.WE WILL GET OPPORTUNITY.

          

IN JUNE MONTH  END MARKET  REVERSE FROM 5555 THAT TIME AVG WAS 5574 , IN AUG MARKET AGAIN TRY TO REVERSE FROM 5555 & SAME AVG 5574 BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN.IN THIS MONTH 5725 AVG WAS MULTIPLE TIME CAME.NOW IT WILL BE MAJOR HURDLES. 

  

DATA REFERENCE

AS ON 16-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  463 & 19-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST IS 529

IT MEANS FRESH SHORT  POSITION ADD 45000. NOW SHORT IS MORE THEN LONG BY 75000.     

CONCLUSION 

WE ARE  BEARISH TO MARKET BUT NOW WE WILL WAIT 5370 & 5350  IS SUPPORT OR WE CAN SAY OVERSOLD SO FAIR RANGE IS 5505 TILL 5555. & ROLLOVER TIME WILL COME  

FII ADDED NET SHORT CONSECUTIVE 4TH DAYS.

MARKET IS 6 % & 12 %.SWING ,FROM 6100 12 % IS 5376 & FROM 5760 6% IS 5414.

TODAY BOTH ABOVE POINT CAME TODAY,WE WILL SEE SOME SUPPORT HERE 

    

WE CAN GO ONCE AGAIN SHORT TILL 5505 TILL 55555 WITH SL OF 5618(2ND WEEK AVG) 

IF MARKET WILL REACH 5414 OR 5375 IN NEXT 2 DAYS, THEN MARKET WILL TAKE SIDE WAYS FOR ROLL OVER 

IF NOT THEN VOLATILITY WILL IMPROVE FROM 5508 TO  5585 & 5400 RANGE.

WE  WILL SEE BOTH SIDE.IN SAME WEEK       

    

 TODAY MARKET BROKEN HISTORICALLY PE OF 16. I FEEL  NEW BEAR PHASE WILL OPEN.

( IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS

WE ARE @ 16.3 PE & NIFTY BREACH HIS 16 PE @ JUNE 2008 . WE MAY TAKE  THIS VIEW ACCORDINGLY.)