NIFTY VIEW 16-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 16-08-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
NIFTY O 5720 L 5688 H 5759 C 5748 AVG 5726 (   MONTH  AVG 5713 ) LAST THREE  DAYS AVG 5672.

AFTER EXP FROM 26 JULY TILL 2 AUG NIFTY AVG WAS 5822 THIS COULD BE A HURDLE . 

THIS MONTH EXP. IS LONG TILL 29 AUG.AS WE REVIEW PAST LONG MONTH DATA INDEX RETRACE 50% (IE 5745) WE ARE @ 50 % RETRACE LEVEL .LAST TWO SESSION FII NET SOLD INDEX .CONTINUE LONG WIND UP & SHORT ADDED TO SYSTEM.

MARKET WILL BE IN TRADING ZONE OF 5822 & 5670 BREK OUT OF ANY SIDE & FII DATA  WILL BE  LEAD THE RALLY 

DATA REFERENCE

AS ON 14-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST IS  411

IT MEANS FRESH SHORT  POSITION ADD 24000. NOW LONG & SHORT BOTH ARE @ SAME LEVEL PUT IS LONG & MORE THEN CALL.     

CONCLUSION 

WE WILL TAKE BEARISH VIEW TO MARKET

FII ADDED NET SHORT  & CREATE LONG IN PUT OPTION.

 

WE CAN GO SHORT  WITH SL OF 5822(1ST WEEK AUG AVG)

IF NIFTY CLOSE BELOW 5670 LEVEL THEN MORE DOWN MOVE WE CAN SEE.

FOR TRADING RANGE WILL BE TOP 5822 & BOTTOM 5672  

    

NIFTY PE (PRICE TO EARNING) @ 16.5,,,, HISTORICALLY THIS VALUE IS FAIR VALUE. IN PAST 20 DEC 2011 NIFTY 4544 @ 16.5 PE  & SAME @ 23 MAY 2012 NIFTY 4835 16.5 PE. MARKET GIVEN WAIT AGE TO THIS PRICE WE CAN ANTICIPATE FAIR VALUE IN TODAY MARKET PRICE. IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS