nifty view for 30-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 30-08-2013

TODAY EXPIRY WAS VOLATILE.WITHIN TWO DAYS MARKET BOUNCE BACK FROM 5108 TILL 5425  THIS TWO DAYS AVG IS 5284 & THIS IS BECOME SUPPORT & AUG AVG IS 5521 IS BECOME HURDLES.  

FII WIND UP ALL HIS SHORT. LONG & SHORT BOTH @ SAME LEVEL & DRASTICALLY OI IS CUT BY FII .SO WE HAVE TO WAIT FOR NEW DIRECTION,

THIS MONTH  EXPIRY IS VERY SHORT. & CALL PUT PREM IS HIGH. 

  

NIFTY VIEW 28 AUG 2013

WRITING AFTER LONG TIME  BUSY IN PERSONAL WORK

NIFTY DOWN 12 % FROM HIGH FROM THIS MONTH

NOW 1 ST RESISTANCE  FOR MARKET IS 5328 &  2ND IS 5394

SUPPORT FOR MARKET IS 5139 TILL 5125 (14 % MONTHLY SWING)

OVER ALL MARKET IS -VE TREND  &  LAST 3 TO 6 MONTH BOTTOM WILL BE RESISTANCE (5555) THIS IS AUG MONTH AVG .

NIFTY VIEW 20-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 20-08-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
NIFTY O 5500 H 5500 L 5367  C 5404 AVG 5420 (   MONTH  AVG 5665 ) last two avg is 5502

FROM (5745) 50 % RETRENCHMENT MARKET FALL LIKE 2009 .MARKET IS MORE NERVOUS THEN BEARISH. IN MARKET VOLUME  IS LESS & FALL IS MORE. 

NOW 5502 & 5555 WILL BE  HURDLES & 5350 OR 5325  MAX SUPPORT.

TODAY INDEX SOLD BY FII ALL QTTY ABSORB WITHIN 75 POINT OF NIFTY & LONG POSITION WIND UP IN PUT 40000 CONT.AFTER WEDNESDAY MARKET WILL BE IN ROLL OVER MODE SO GOING SHORT @ THIS PRICE WILL BE NOT ADVISABLE.WE WILL GET OPPORTUNITY.

          

IN JUNE MONTH  END MARKET  REVERSE FROM 5555 THAT TIME AVG WAS 5574 , IN AUG MARKET AGAIN TRY TO REVERSE FROM 5555 & SAME AVG 5574 BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN.IN THIS MONTH 5725 AVG WAS MULTIPLE TIME CAME.NOW IT WILL BE MAJOR HURDLES. 

  

DATA REFERENCE

AS ON 16-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  463 & 19-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST IS 529

IT MEANS FRESH SHORT  POSITION ADD 45000. NOW SHORT IS MORE THEN LONG BY 75000.     

CONCLUSION 

WE ARE  BEARISH TO MARKET BUT NOW WE WILL WAIT 5370 & 5350  IS SUPPORT OR WE CAN SAY OVERSOLD SO FAIR RANGE IS 5505 TILL 5555. & ROLLOVER TIME WILL COME  

FII ADDED NET SHORT CONSECUTIVE 4TH DAYS.

MARKET IS 6 % & 12 %.SWING ,FROM 6100 12 % IS 5376 & FROM 5760 6% IS 5414.

TODAY BOTH ABOVE POINT CAME TODAY,WE WILL SEE SOME SUPPORT HERE 

    

WE CAN GO ONCE AGAIN SHORT TILL 5505 TILL 55555 WITH SL OF 5618(2ND WEEK AVG) 

IF MARKET WILL REACH 5414 OR 5375 IN NEXT 2 DAYS, THEN MARKET WILL TAKE SIDE WAYS FOR ROLL OVER 

IF NOT THEN VOLATILITY WILL IMPROVE FROM 5508 TO  5585 & 5400 RANGE.

WE  WILL SEE BOTH SIDE.IN SAME WEEK       

    

 TODAY MARKET BROKEN HISTORICALLY PE OF 16. I FEEL  NEW BEAR PHASE WILL OPEN.

( IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS

WE ARE @ 16.3 PE & NIFTY BREACH HIS 16 PE @ JUNE 2008 . WE MAY TAKE  THIS VIEW ACCORDINGLY.)

NIFTY VIEW 19-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 19-08-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
NIFTY O 5716 H 5725 L 5493  C 5508 AVG 5583 (   MONTH  AVG 5696 ) 2ND LAST WEEK AVG 5618.

FROM (5745) 50 % RETRENCHMENT MARKET FALL LIKE 2009 .MARKET IS MORE NERVOUS THEN BEARISH. IN MARKET VOLUME  IS LESS & FALL IS MORE. 

IN JUNE MONTH  END MARKET  REVERSE FROM 5555 THAT TIME AVG WAS 5574 , IN AUG MARKET AGAIN TRY TO REVERSE FROM 5555 & SAME AVG 5574 BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN.IN THIS MONTH 5725 AVG WAS MULTIPLE TIME CAME.NOW IT WILL BE MAJOR HURDLES.   

DATA REFERENCE

AS ON 14-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  & 16-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST IS 463

IT MEANS FRESH SHORT  POSITION ADD 35000. NOW SHORT IS MORE THEN LONG PUT IS MORE LONG & THEN CALL.     

CONCLUSION 

WE WILL TAKE BEARISH VIEW TO MARKET

FII ADDED NET SHORT CONSECUTIVE 3 DAYS & LAST FRIDAY 35000 (AVG IS 5583) & CREATE LONG IN PUT OPTION.

MARKET IS 6 % & 12 %.SWING ,FROM 6100 12 % IS 5376 & FROM 5760 6% IS 5414.

   

WE CAN GO ONCE AGAIN SHORT TILL 5583 WITH SL OF 5618(2ND WEEK AVG) 

IF MARKET WILL REACH 5414 OR 5375 IN NEXT 2 DAYS, THEN MARKET WILL TAKE SIDE WAYS FOR ROLL OVER 

IF NOT THEN VOLATILITY WILL IMPROVE FROM 5508 TO  5585 & 5400 RANGE.

WE  WILL SEE BOTH SIDE.IN SAME WEEK       

    

 IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS

WE ARE @ 16.3 PE & NIFTY BREACH HIS 16 PE @ JUNE 2008 . WE MAY TAKE  THIS VIEW ACCORDINGLY.

NIFTY VIEW 16-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 16-08-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
NIFTY O 5720 L 5688 H 5759 C 5748 AVG 5726 (   MONTH  AVG 5713 ) LAST THREE  DAYS AVG 5672.

AFTER EXP FROM 26 JULY TILL 2 AUG NIFTY AVG WAS 5822 THIS COULD BE A HURDLE . 

THIS MONTH EXP. IS LONG TILL 29 AUG.AS WE REVIEW PAST LONG MONTH DATA INDEX RETRACE 50% (IE 5745) WE ARE @ 50 % RETRACE LEVEL .LAST TWO SESSION FII NET SOLD INDEX .CONTINUE LONG WIND UP & SHORT ADDED TO SYSTEM.

MARKET WILL BE IN TRADING ZONE OF 5822 & 5670 BREK OUT OF ANY SIDE & FII DATA  WILL BE  LEAD THE RALLY 

DATA REFERENCE

AS ON 14-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST IS  411

IT MEANS FRESH SHORT  POSITION ADD 24000. NOW LONG & SHORT BOTH ARE @ SAME LEVEL PUT IS LONG & MORE THEN CALL.     

CONCLUSION 

WE WILL TAKE BEARISH VIEW TO MARKET

FII ADDED NET SHORT  & CREATE LONG IN PUT OPTION.

 

WE CAN GO SHORT  WITH SL OF 5822(1ST WEEK AUG AVG)

IF NIFTY CLOSE BELOW 5670 LEVEL THEN MORE DOWN MOVE WE CAN SEE.

FOR TRADING RANGE WILL BE TOP 5822 & BOTTOM 5672  

    

NIFTY PE (PRICE TO EARNING) @ 16.5,,,, HISTORICALLY THIS VALUE IS FAIR VALUE. IN PAST 20 DEC 2011 NIFTY 4544 @ 16.5 PE  & SAME @ 23 MAY 2012 NIFTY 4835 16.5 PE. MARKET GIVEN WAIT AGE TO THIS PRICE WE CAN ANTICIPATE FAIR VALUE IN TODAY MARKET PRICE. IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS 

NIFTY VIEW 12-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 12-08-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
NIFTY O 5552 L 5542 H 5602 C 5590 AVG 5575 (LAST WEEK AVG 5618 & MONTH 5725) LAST TWO DAYS 5603 WAS TWO TIME TOP.AFTER EXP FROM 26 JULY TILL 8 AUG NIFTY COMPLITED 8% SWING. THIS MONTH IS LONG  TILL 29 AUG.AS REVIEW PAST LONG MONTH DATA INDEX RETRACE 50% (IE 5745)

DATA REFERENCE

AS ON 08-08-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST IS  414

IT MEANS FRESH LONG POSITION ADD TO OI 14000.& SOLD 29000 OPTION & OPTION IS PUT.       

CONCLUSION 

FII IS NET ADDED LONG & CRATE SHORT IN PUT OPTION.

WE WILL TAKE BULLISH VIEW TO MARKET 

WE CAN GO LONG WITH SL OF 5565 AND IF NIFTY MAINTAIN ABOVE 5618 THEN MORE UP MOVE TILL 5725 (IS MONTH AVG) 

IF MARKET NOT ABLE TO CROSS BEYOND 5618 & DOWN  BELOW 5545 THEN AGAIN DIFFICULT TIME FOR UP MOVE,    

NIFTY PE (PRICE TO EARNING) @ 16.5,,,, HISTORICALLY THIS VALUE IS FAIR VALUE. IN PAST 20 DEC 2011 NIFTY 4544 @ 16.5 PE  & SAME @ 23 MAY 2012 NIFTY 4835 16.5 PE. MARKET GIVEN WAIT AGE TO THIS PRICE WE CAN ANTICIPATE FAIR VALUE IN TODAY MARKET PRICE. IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS  .   

NIFTY VIEW 07-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 07-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 06-08-2013

TODAY NIFTY CONSTANTLY  COMING DOWN 5555 IS BOTTOM & 5615 IS AVG. TODAY   FII SOLD 20000 CONT OVER ALL SELL AVG IS 5725.

NIFTY PE (PRICE TO EARNING) @ 16.5,,,, HISTORICALLY THIS VALUE IS FAIR VALUE. IN PAST 20 DEC 2011 NIFTY 4544 @ 16.5 PE  & SAME @ 23 MAY 2012 NIFTY 4835 16.5 PE. MARKET GIVEN WAIT AGE TO THIS PRICE WE CAN ANTICIPATE FAIR VALUE IN TODAY MARKET PRICE. IF NIFTY  BREACH 16 PE THEN WE HAVE TO RE WORK FOR NEW LEVELS  .   

WE ARE ANTICIPATE  THIS WEEK CLOSE IS NEAR 5705 (+- 25 POINT)

NIFTY VIEW 06-08-2013

NIFTY VIEW 06-08-2013

NIFTY IS IN TRADING RANGE BOUND SELL ON RISE FROM 5777 TILL 5803  & BUY IN LOWER FROM 5650 TILL 5625

WE ARE ANTICIPATE  THIS WEEK CLOSE IS NEAR 5705 (+- 25 POINT)

NIFTY VIEW FOR 5--08-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 5-08-2013

4-08-2013 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

FOLLOW UP:-  

MARKET FALL CONSTANT  8 DAYS & LAST THREE DAYS CONTINUES  LONG WIND UP CAME IN INDEX & AVG IS 5775  THIS MONTH  AVG IS 5813 .FOR DOWN SIDE AS PER SWING FROM HIGH  5975   6% IS 5615 

 DATA:- 

FII NET SOLD -19000  INDEX CONT & NET 374 IS OI. NET RESULT IS LONG WIND UP @ FII DESK & PARTLY FRESH SELL @ INDEX.
NET CASH BUY IS +VE BY 200 CR (THIS IS +VE  INDICATION)

conclusion:-

FOR NEXT WEEK WE CAN EN CASH CALL & PUT PERM.  

FII IS ACTIVELY WINDING UP HIS LONG @ INDEX BUT IN DOWN FALL NET CASH BUYER 

FOR NEXT WEEK MARKET WILL BE IN RANGE BOUND 

FOR NEXT TRADING   HURDLE IS 5777 TILL 5813  & 5650 TILL 5625 IS SUPPORT .