OZA EQUITY ANALYSIS: NIFTY VIEW FOR 01-07-2013

OZA EQUITY ANALYSIS: NIFTY VIEW FOR 01-07-2013: NIFTY VIEW FOR 01-07-2013 28-06-2013  TECHNICAL ANALYSIS  follow up:-  NIFTY  HIGH 5852 - LOW 5761 ltp 5832 AVG 5804.75,  June  mon...

NIFTY VIEW FOR 01-07-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 01-07-2013


28-06-2013 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

follow up:-
 NIFTY  HIGH 5852 - LOW 5761 ltp 5832 AVG 5804.75, June month avg is 5785,last two days avg is 5732.in three days nifty swing up very fast from 5572 to 5852 .we have seen power of short covering.

after expiry nifty open with gap up & in one hour chart  not a single time came down     

DATA 

AS ON 26-06-2013 FII OI was 576  AS ON 27-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 255, entire short expiry on  27 June & net result was long position is higher then short & on Friday more long added in system,28-06-2013 oi is 316 fresh 58000 long added to system this is very important that fii long adding aggressively.  

cash segment 1184 cr net long. 

conclusion :-

go long in market i feel go aggressively long in market with stop loss of 5784 

keep reference point in mind 

my reading says nifty will not able to cut down 5785,if in 3 DAYS nifty not came down & keeping in narrow range, then we will be see strong up move.

but in any case nifty violet 5785 then do not participate aggressively.

  

instated of time out price better go buying with put

 

go long in stock (buy stock & buy put & leave it to expiry    

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

NIFTY VIEW FOR 27-06-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 27-06-2013
26-06-2013 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 

follow up:-
 NIFTY  HIGH 5630 - LOW 5571 ltp 5581 AVG 5606. month avg is 5806 & last two days lowest avg is 5585 & actual two days avg is 5606. from last three days 5606, higher side 5630 & low side 5575, is band from last three
today fii dont participat in long or short in index but net cash sell fall down from 1200 to 500,and  stock f&o short wind up is going on. call put price (+ - 20)so expiry will be 5585 or 5625 still i am felling 5625 is bright chance of expiry

DATA 

AS ON 25-06-2013 FII OI was 587 oi AS ON 26-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 576 oi, no fresh long or short in fo genrated

in cash segment 500 cr net sell by fii & 400 cr net long in future

conclusion :- 

 

insted of time out price better go buying with put

 

 

go long in stock (buy stock & buy put of next month)profit booking zone is 5735 or even more, after then we will work out next new zone for sell. 

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

NIFTY VIEW FOR 26-06-2013

 NIFTY VIEW FOR  26-06-2013 

25-06-2013 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-
 NIFTY  HIGH 5667 - LOW 5567 ltp 5602 AVG 5617. month avg is 5806 & last two days lowest avg is 5585 & actual two days avg is 5606. 5735 will be  hurdels,this is area from where market made last  time bottom (14 june)  

DATA 

AS ON 24-06-2013 FII OI was 531 AS ON 25-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 587 fresh 20 thu  short & 40 thu rollover seen 

in cash segment 1285 cr net sell by fii & 400 cr net long in future

conclusion :- 

go long in stock (buy stock & buy put of next month)profit booking zone is 5735 then we will work out new zone nifty expiry will be in range of 5650 (+-20)

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

nifty view 25-06-13

WE ARE NEAR ROLL OVER & EXPIRY.NIFTY FALL 5 WEEK STRAIT & PAST WE HAVE SEEN THAT AFTER 5 WEEK MARKET WILL  BE IN SIDE WAYS OR UP MOVE ATLEST 0.25% TILL 0.38%. NIFTY OPEN WITH GAP DOWN & WENT UP TILL PREVIOUS DAY AVG 5681 & AGAIN FALL DOWN NOW MARKET WILL BE IN RANGE FROM 5585 TO 5736(THURSDAY 1ST 15MIN AVG WAS 5705 NOW THIS IS IMPORTANT POINT FOR REFERENCE). NIFTY HIGH 5628 - LOW 5556 LTP 5600 AVG 5596.NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IN F&O BY FII 

TODAY FII SOLD 1500 CR IN CASH.SELL IS COMING DUE TO $ IS STRONG. we have seen fii selling in cash & buying in stock future 

DATA:-   

AS ON 21-06-2013 FII OI was 494000 AS ON 24-06-2013 FII 

OPEN INTEREST  is 531000 .its rollover   

BUT IN STOCK FUTURE SHORT WIND UP DONE BY FII, WE WILL SEE MORE WIND UP IN STOCK   

in cash segment NET 1500 CR SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

market gone down below 5585 & tomorrow we will see one more gap down but i will see buying opportunity 

FOR WEEK,,, now we must look for trading range from 5585 & till 5525 my target will be  5736.

FOR POSITIONAL SELL WE WILL WAIT FOR 5776 THAT IS next selling avg (OF FII IN INDEAX)

roll over will keep market in range next move will be open after roll over 

OPTION STRATEGY

SELL JULY 5600 PUT & BUY 5600 PUT AUG 

SELL JULY 5700 CALL& BUY 5700 CALL AUG

WE MAY GAIN 20 /- IN 3 DAYS 

 
(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

NIFTY VIEW FOR 23-06-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 23-06-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

INTERNATIONAL EVENT IS OVER NOW WE ARE NEAR ROLL OVER & EXPIRY.NIFTY FALL 5 WEEK STRAIT & PAST WE HAVE SEEN THAT AFTER 5 WEEK MARKET WILL  BE IN SIDE WAYS OR UP MOVE ATLEST 0.25% TILL 0.38%.ON FRIDAY NIFTY OPEN WITH GAP DOWN & WENT UP TILL PREVIOUS DAY AVG 5681 & AGAIN FALL DOWN NOW MARKET WILL BE IN RANGE FROM 5585 TO 5736(THURSDAY 1ST 15MIN AVG WAS 5705 NOW THIS IS IMPORTANT POINT FOR REFERENCE). NIFTY HIGH 5681 - LOW 5614 LTP 5655 AVG 5649.NOT MUCH ACTIVITY IN F&O BY FII

TODAY FII SOLD 1700 CR IN CASH.SELL IS COMING DUE TO $ IS STRONG.FROM HERE RS MAY TOUCH 60.35 OR 60.50 & WE CAN CONSIDER TEMPORARY TOP.

FROM 5868 4% is 5636 . we can consider as temp bottom near this price. WE CAN SEE SHORT COVERING IN STOCK FUTURE 

NIFTY START SELLING FROM 6136 TILL 5695 NET 441 POINT FROM THERE WENT UP TILL 5868 (5868-5695= 173) (WE REF 5868 POINT VERY STRONGLY THAT FII ADD 60000 CONT @ 11 JUNE @ THIS AVG PRICE)

DATA:-   

AS ON 20-06-2013 FII OI was 494000 AS ON 21-06-2013 FII 

OPEN INTEREST  is 494000 .NO CHANG IN OPEN INTREST  

BUT IN STOCK FUTURE SHORT WIND UP DONE BY FII, WE WILL SEE MORE WIND UP IN STOCK   

in cash segment NET 1700 CR SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

FOR WEEK,,, now we must look for trading range from 5585 TILL  5736. FOR MONDAY IF 5631 TO 5625  IS BOTTOM THEN WE CAN SEE 5736 & IF  5665 TO 5675  IS TOP THEN WE WILL SEE 5585 

FOR POSITIONAL SELL WE WILL WAIT FOR 5776 THAT IS next selling avg (OF FII IN INDEAX)

roll over will keep market in range next move will be open after roll over 

OPTION STRATEGY

SELL JULY 5600 PUT & BUY 5600 PUT AUG 

SELL JULY 5700 CALL& BUY 5700 CALL AUG

WE MAY GAIN 20 /- IN 3 DAYS 

 
(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

WEDNESDAY, JUNE 19, 2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 21-06-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 21-06-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

NIFTY OPEN WITH GAP DOWN & CONSTANTLY ADDING SHORT.FIRST 15 MIN 35 LAC CONTACT TRADED & THAT AVG WAS 5705 NOW THIS IS IMPORTANT POINT FOR REFERENCE. NIFTY HIGH 5750 - LOW 5640 LTP 5640 AVG 5681.(5750 IS FLICK TRADE) 

TODAY FII SOLD 2000 CR IN CASH.SELL IS COMING DUE TO $ IS STRONG.FROM HERE RS MAY TOUCH 60.35 OR 60.50 & WE CAN CONSIDER TEMPORARY TOP.

NIFTY START SELLING FROM 6136 TILL 5695 NET 441 POINT FROM THERE WENT UP TILL 5868 (5868-5695= 173) (WE REF 5868 POINT VERY STRONGLY THAT FII ADD 60000 CONT @ 11 JUNE @ THIS AVG PRICE)
FROM 5868 4% is 5636  & 6% is 5516. we can consider as temp bottom near this price 

DATA   

AS ON 19-06-2013 FII OI was 436000 AS ON 20-06-2013 FII 

OPEN INTEREST  is 494000 TODAY ALSO NET 37000 CONTRACT SHORT GENERATED IN SYSTEM. OVERALL GROSS OPEN INTEREST  ADD BY 58000 TODAY ALSO INDEX BASE SELL CAME.BUT CREATE LONG POSITION @ STOCK FUT.(THIS CAN BE SHORT COVING)    

  

in cash segment NET 2000 CR SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

now we must look for trading range from 5575 & 5725 (5776 is next selling avg of fii in index)roll over will keep market in range next move will be open after roll over 

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

NIFTY VIEW FOR 20-06-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 20-06-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

NIFTY HIGH 5829 - LOW 5776 LTP 5832 AVG 5802.IN THE MARKET ROLL OVER IS GOING ON DUE TO THAT MARKET IS IN RANGE BOUND,TODAY EVENT @ USA DUE TO THAT WE MAY SEE SWING TOMORROW OVER ALL MARKET IS -VE IF ANY CASE SHORT COVERING WILL COME THEN WE MAY SEE 5906 OR 5925 OTHER WISE MARKET IS NOT ABLE TO CROSS 5845  (from 6119 to 5693, 50 % RETRENCHMENT IS 5906) NEXT TWO DAYS MARKET RANGE IS 5785 TILL 5868  (LAST TWO DAYS MARK TAKING SUPP AROUND 5815 & SELLING COMING AROUND 5848 

THIS FULL WEEK FII IS NET SELLER IN CASH, AVG OF 500 EACH DAY.SELL IS COMING DUE TO $ IS STRONG .FII TOADY ALSO NET SELL IN CASH & FO.   

DATA   

AS ON 18-06-2013 FII OI was 421000 AS ON 19-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 436000 TODAY ALSO NET 10000 CONTRACT SHORT GENERATED IN SYSTEM. OVERALL GROSS OPEN INTEREST  ADD BY 25000 TODAY ALSO INDEX BASE SELL CAME.     

  

in cash segment NET 500 CR SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

CHANCE FOR POSITIONAL SELLING IN MARKET IS OPPORTUNITY. 

WE ARE IN THE MONEY IN OPTION STRATEGY OPTION STRATEGY STILL CONTINUE

OPTION STRATEGY GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5700 PUT & 5900 CALL (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

                             OR   

GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT  IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5600 PUT  & 6000  (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

FROM 6119 TO 5693 IS 7%.(50 % RETRENCHMENT IS 5906)

NIFTY MONTH TO MONTH SWING IS 7 %  (6119-5693)

NIFTY VIEW FOR 19-06-2013

NIFTY VIEW FOR 19-06-2013

                                                                      

                    NIFTY VIEW FOR 19-06-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

NIFTY HIGH 5868 - LOW 5800 ltp 5811 AVG 5828 .(from 6119 to 5693, 50 % RETRENCHMENT IS 5906) NEXT TWO DAYS MARKET RANGE IS 5785 TILL 5868  (LAST TWO DAYS MARK TAKING SUPP AROUND 5815 & SELLING COMING AROUND 5848 

.FII TOADY ALSO NET SELL IN CASH & FO.   

DATA   

AS ON 18-06-2013 FII OI was 398000 AS ON 18-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 42100 TODAY ALSO NET 17000 CONTRACT SHORT GENERATED IN SYSTEM. OVERALL GROSS OPEN INTEREST  ADD BY 23000 NOW EVEN MORE  SHORT IS GENERATED.     

  

in cash segment NET 600 CR SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

CHANCE FOR POSITIONAL SELLING IN MARKET IS OPPORTUNITY .IF OPEN @ 5838,SL WILL BE 5852  

OPTION STRATEGY STILL CONTINUE

OPTION STRATEGY GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5700 PUT & 5900 CALL (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

                             OR   

GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT  IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5600 PUT  & 6000  (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

FROM 6119 TO 5693 IS 7%.(50 % RETRENCHMENT IS 5906)

NIFTY MONTH TO MONTH SWING IS 7 %  (6119-5693)

NIFTY VIEW FOR 18-06-2013

                                                             MONDAY, June 17, 2013

 

                    NIFTY VIEW FOR 18-06-2013

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

NIFTY HIGH 5852 - LOW 5770 ltp 5848 AVG 5815 .LAST TWO DAY AVG IS 5765.FRIDAY AVG IS 5715 & TODAY AVG 5815 100 POINT ABOVE FROM FRIDAY (50 % RETRENCHMENT IS 5906)

TODAY MRK OPEN WITH GAP up  & CAME DOWN WHEN RBI ANNOUNCE CREDIT POLICY. AS SOON AS CR POLICY OVER.MAJOR BANKING SECTOR START MOVING UP.FII TOADY ALSO NET SELL IN CASH & FO.   

DATA   

AS ON 14-06-2013 FII OI was 354000 AS ON 17-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 39800 TODAY ALSO NET 10000 CONTRACT SHORT GENERATED IN SYSTEM. OVERALL GROSS OPEN INTEREST  ADD BY 44000 NOW EVEN MORE  SHORT IS HIGHER THEN LONG    

  

in cash segment NET 165 CR SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

GAP UP IS CHANCE FOR POSITIONAL SELLING IN MARKET.IF OPEN @ 5868 SELL TILL 5888,STILL  GOING UP THEN WE WILL ANALYSIS AGAIN @ 5923 (5923 IS NOT A STOP LOSS WE MAY SELL @ THIS PRICE)    THIS MONTH AVG IS 5878

OPTION STRATEGY STILL CONTINUE

OPTION STRATEGY GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5700 PUT & 5900 CALL (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

                             OR   

GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT  IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5600 PUT  & 6000  (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

FROM 6119 TO 5693 IS 7%.(50 % RETRENCHMENT IS 5906)

NIFTY MONTH TO MONTH SWING IS 7 %  (6119-5693)

NIFTY VIEW FOR 14-06-2013

 NIFTY VIEW FOR 14-06-2013

13-06-2013 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

NIFTY HIGH 5738 - LOW 5692 ltp 5702 AVG 5715 .THIS WEEK AVG IS 5796.

TODAY MRK OPEN WITH GAP DOWN & TRADE IN RANGE FROM 5738 TO 5692 &  5702. FII TOADY ALSO NET SELL IN CASH & FO.   

DATA   

AS ON 11-06-2013 FII OI was 31500 AS ON 12-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 352000 TODAY ALSO NET 28000 CONTRACT SHORT GENERATED IN SYSTEM. NOW  SHORT IS HIGHER THEN LONG    

  

in cash segment 558 cr SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

GAP DOWN IS CHANCE FOR BUYING IN MARKET. IF MRK CREATE VOLUME IN FIRST 15 MIN MORE THEN 30 LAC THEN WAIT FOR MARKET TO GO UP, IF FIRST 30 MIN CROSS HIS HIGH THEN GO LONG @ AVG PRICE OF 15 MIN & SL WILL 10 POINT FROM LOW 

OPTION STRATEGY GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5700 PUT & 5900 CALL (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

                             OR   

GO SHORT 5700 CALL PUT @ 81/- IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5500 PUT @ 60/- & 5900 CALL @60/- (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

FROM 6119 TO 5693 IS 7%.

WHAT WE EXPECT 6% SWING IN MONTH,MORE THEN THAT DONE WITHIN 10 DAYS OF WORKING.WE MAY SEE MORE FALL BEFORE THAT WE CAN SEE 1 UP MOVE AS RETRENCHMENT UP TO 5808 & 2828 THEN WE WILL REVIEW NEXT TARGET  FALL OF MARKET  

NIFTY MONTH TO MONTH SWING IS 7 %  (6119-5693)

NIFTY VIEW FOR 13-06-2013

 NIFTY VIEW FOR 13-06-2013

12-06-2013 

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS 
follow up:-

NIFTY HIGH 5808 - LOW 5747 ltp 5777 AVG 5779  month avg is 5913.THIS WEEK AVG IS 5837.

TODAY MRK OPEN WITH GAP DOWN & TRADE IN RANGE FROM 5750 TILL 5808 CLOSE & AVG IS SAME. FII TOADY ALSO NET SELL IN CASH & FO BUT  WIND UP IN OPTION.TOMORROW WE MAY SEE MIX SWING.B'COS OF FITCH RATING IS POSITIVE. FII  WILL GO FOR   SHORT COVERING   

AS PER OUR YESTERDAY BIOG NIFTY & $ BOTH MADE PERFECT BOTTOM IE 5750 & 57.92 

DATA   

AS ON 11-06-2013 FII OI was 272000 AS ON 12-06-2013 FII OPEN INTEREST  is 315000 TODAY NET 28000 CONTRACT SHORT GENERATED IN SYSTEM.  NOW  SHORT IS HIGHER THEN LONG    

  

in cash segment 1000 cr SOLD by fii

conclusion :- 

GAP UP IS CHANCE.IF MRK CREATE VOLUME IN FIRST 15 MIN MORE THEN 30 LAC THEN WAIT FOR MARKET TO GO UP TILL 5817 & 5825 THEN GO SHORT & FOR BUYING RANGE IF MARKET OPEN FLAT & IS FIRST 30 MIN CROSS HIS HIGH THEN GO LONG.

I FEEL TOMORROW WE CAN AVOID TRADING ALSO. 

OPTION STRATEGY GO SHORT 5800 CALL PUT IN CURRENT MONTH & BUY NEXT MONTH 5600 PUT & 5900 CALL (ITS HEDGE BOTH SIDE)   

(ALWAYS EXECUTE YOUR  STOP LOSS) 

FROM 6119 TO 5793 IS 5.5%.

WHAT WE EXPECT IN MONTH IS DONE WITHIN 7 DAYS OF WORKING.  WE MAY SEE MORE FALL BEFORE THAT WE CAN SEE 1 UP MOVE AS RETRENCHMENT UP TO 5868 THEN WE WILL REVIEW NEXT TARGET    

NIFTY MONTH TO MONTH SWING IS 6 %  (6119-5793)